eurusd forex trading Asia open june 9

1.2151 is the area of resistance for a maximum swing high.  If we get news that the Trillion dollars is delegated and the swiss are still buying euro, we could see the swing up.

1.2028-58 is a resistance zone where there will be fighting over direction.  Getting in before it enters here might save you the choppiness.

Watch for 1.1985 area as this is where it will stall to either turn or break through the 1.2000 psychological resistance the ECB wants to get above.  This is a major hinging level for the next move down.  If we close above on an 8 hour chart support could hold, below we could be looking at next level down.  Extreme swing low of 1.1680.

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The JPY weakened against all major counterparts as political uncertainty in Japan and signs the US economy is gaining traction spurred demand for riskier assets. The USDJPY was at 92.20 after it touched 92.36, the strongest level since May 18 while the EURJPY was at 113.30 before data forecast to show a continuing recovery in the US labor market. The JPY slid on speculation Japan’s next leader will seek a weaker currency after Hatoyama’s resignation and on speculation he will be succeeded by Finance Minister Naoto Kan, who has called for the BOJ to do more to fight deflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.4% and the Nikkei added 2.6%, extending a US rebound and triggering risk appetite as Japanese investors boosted net purchases of foreign bonds to the most since September.

The AUDUSD rose 0.5% to 0.8462 and NZDUSD advanced 0.4% to 0.6843 for a second day as signs of strong economic data in the US and Australia revived demand for risk appetite. Australia’s trade balance swung to a surplus in April as exports of iron ore jumped by 25%, coal shipments surged 40%, exports gained 11% to A$22.7 billion and imports were unchanged in April at A$22.5 billion. The trade surplus was A$134 million compared with a revised deficit of A$2.04 billion in March. Increasing demand from Asia is stoking an investment boom in Australia’s resources industries that is forecast by the RBA to last more than a decade.

Looking at today’s news, ADP Employer Services will probably show that US companies created 70,000 jobs, Initial jobless claims fell to 455,000 (prev. 460,000) and ISM index of non- manufacturing businesses rose to 55.6 (prev. 55.4) showing the US recovery is broadening as employment improves. Adding to signs the global economy is on the mend, the average cost of a home in UK probably rose 0.3% according to data to release today.

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EURUSD fell to 1.2264 while EURJPY traded at 111.65 extending its longest monthly decline in 10 years on concerns Europe’s efforts to reduce budget deficits will derail the region’s economies as the credit crisis shakes the banking system. The EUR fell before a report forecast to show Italian unemployment increased to 8.9% (prev. 8.8%) and after an EU consumer sentiment index fell to 98.4 (prev. 100.6) yesterday. The ECB warned yesterday of more bank losses as the region’s credit crisis spreads. The ECB said in its bi-annual Financial Stability Report yesterday that EU banks may see another 90 billion EUR in net write downs this year on loans and securities. The lenders will need to make provisions for losses of about 105 billion EUR next year, which may be even bigger amid “heightened sovereign risks and possible second-round effects of the fiscal consolidation,” the ECB said. Asian currencies declined on concerns that a slowdown in China may cloud prospects for global growth and sap demand for higher-yielding assets.

The AUDUSD fell to 0.8394 as home-building approvals dropped 14.8% (prev. 16.8, exp. -5%) in April for the third month this year, adding to signs the RBA’s interest-rate increases is damping demand for dwellings. Falling home-building approvals give RBA Governor Glenn Stevens scope to keep interest rates unchanged today at 4.5%. Australian manufacturing growth declined 3.5 points to 56.3 in May from the fastest pace in almost eight years, as new orders fell following the RBA’s decision to boost borrowing costs last month for the sixth time since October while inventories fell 8.8 points to 52.1 and new orders slipped 4.9 points to 54.6. Australian retail sales increased 0.6% (prev. 0.8%, exp. 0.3%) in April at double the pace estimated by economists as consumers boosted spending on food and household goods. GDP growth probably slowed to 0.6% (prev. 0.9%) according to a report due tomorrow.

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USDJPY climbed to 91.38 while EURJPY rose to 112.63 as the JPY weakened against its major counterparts amid speculation political turmoil will dent the currency’s safe-haven appeal after Japan’s Social Democratic Party left a three-way coalition government. The JPY also fell after a poll showed that more than half of the nation’s voters want Prime Minister Hatoyama to resign. Japan’s industrial production increased 1.3% (prev. 1.2%, exp. 2.5%) less than economists forecast in April, the latest sign that the economic recovery may be losing momentum.

RBA will probably leave the overnight cash rate target at 4.5% tomorrow unchanged after the most aggressive round of increases restrained retail sales and slashed mortgage lending by a quarter. Loans provided by banks and other finance companies gained 0.2%, the smallest gain since November, lending to home buyers rose 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), dwelling price growth slumped to 0.3%. That follows reports this month showing home-loan approvals dropped 25% to the lowest level in nine years. Investors boosted bets this month that Governor Glenn Stevens will keep Australia’s policy rate unchanged until 2011. The AUDUSD traded at 0.8484. GDP growth probably slowed to 0.6% (prev. 0.9%) according to a report on June 2. Reports will show retail sales increased 0.3% in April and building approvals fell for the third month according to a report due tomorrow. Thailand’s central bank will probably maintain its benchmark rate at 1.25% on June 2, Bank Indonesia may keep borrowing costs at 6.5% on June 4 and Philippines is forecast to be held at 4% on June 3.

USDCAD declined to 1.0489 on prospects BOC will raise the policy rate, boosting the yield advantage over US assets and also before a report forecast to show its economic recovery quickened in the first quarter, backing the case for the central bank to increase interest rates. GDP probably expanded at 5.9% annually in Q1 according to a report due today. BOC Governor Mark Carney will probably raise the policy rate by 0.25% to 0.5% when policy makers meet on June 1. A rate increase would boost demand for the CAD and the BOC policy move may become a tool to gauge the strength of central banks’ concerns over Europe’s credit crisis.

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USDJPY rose to a one- week high of 91.37 before a report forecast to show US consumer spending gained 0.3% and incomes climbed 0.4%, adding to signs the nation’s economic recovery remains on track. The JPY fell against the AUD and NZD as Asian stocks rose and before a report forecast to show on May 31 Japan’s industrial production advanced 3% (prev. 1.2%). Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.1% (prev. 5%), losing a net 280,000 jobs, Retail sales rose 4.9%, household spending dropped 0.7% (exp. 2.5%) and deflation deepened, signaling domestic demand is restraining the nation’s recovery from its worst postwar recession. Consumer prices excluding fresh food slid 1.5% (prev. 1.2%) after government figures showed an extended rebound in exports, driven by demand from Asia’s emerging economies, and highlight Japan’s reliance on trade to sustain growth. Finance Minister Naoto Kan said he will try to spur employment that’s “crucial” to overcoming price declines. The drop in consumer prices was exacerbated by the government’s introduction of a waiver on high school tuition fees to assist households. The BOJ has estimated the step will lower core prices by about 0.5%. The BOJ has faced pressure to fight deflation from the government, whose ability to spur the economy is constrained by record public debt. Kan has been urging the bank to adopt an inflation target, and today reiterated that the government and the BOJ will work together to fight deflation.

AUDUSD traded at 0.8516 after rising 2.4% yesterday and AUDJPY advanced 0.2% to 77.65 for its first weekly advance in more than a month, as Asian equities extended a global rally, boosting demand for higher- yielding assets. NZDUSD strengthened 0.1% to 0.6842 after rising 3.2% yesterday and NZDJPY climbed to 62.38 heading for a 2.1% increase since May 21 for its first five-day gain in four weeks before a meeting where the BOC may become the first G7 nation to increase borrowing costs since the end of the global financial crisis. Both currencies are set for their worst monthly slide in more than a year on concern efforts in the EU to curb deficits will damp growth. Both also surged yesterday after China’s foreign-exchange regulator affirmed its commitment to investing in Europe, triggering rallies in stocks and commodities. AUDUSD may struggle to rise above the 0.8575 level before a meeting of RBA next week when policy makers are forecast to leave rates unchanged and release Q1 GDP data on June 2. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index strengthened 1.6%, gaining for a third day.

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The AUDUSD fell to 0.8214 and AUDJPY declined 0.8% to 74.07 for a second day as investors sold higher-yielding assets on concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen and amid reports of escalating tensions between North and South Korea. The AUD slid after North Korea ordered the country’s military to get ready for combat and as iron-ore prices dropped before steelmakers in China and South Korea meet today in Beijing to discuss raw material prices. NZDUSD was at 0.6684 and NZDJPY weakened to 60.26 as Fonterra forecast its milk price payout will rise 8.2% in 2011.

The EURJPY fell 0.5% to 111.12 while EURUSD dropped to 1.2315 for a second day as signs the EU’s debt crisis is spreading revived concern the recovery will slow. The EUR dropped against 13 of its 16 major counterparts as the IMF urged Spain to do more to overhaul its ailing banks, adding to speculation financial institutions in the area face more losses. The IMF backed Spain’s plans to rein in its budget deficit with the deepest spending cuts in three decades. IMF said that the banking industry remains under pressure and the Bank of Spain should be prepared to intervene promptly if pockets of weakness remain. Four Spanish banks plan to combine to form the nation’s fifth-largest financial group with more than 135 billion EUR in assets, as regulators push ailing lenders to merge with stronger partners.

The EURGBP declined 1.1% to 0.8569, the most in almost two weeks; GBPJPY climbed 0.1% to 129.32 and GBPUSD decreased to 1.4378 as the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne outlined budget cuts to shrink the largest government budget deficit among G7 nations. GBPJPY also climbed after Osborne announced 6.25 billion GBP of spending cuts yesterday and poised to set out broader plans in an emergency budget on June 22.

Further housing price data is expected with the S&P/Case Shiller index which is expected to rise 2.5% (MoM) (prev. 0.6%) and the latest consumer confidence reading at 58.5 (prev. 57.9). The relatively better recovery prospects for the US should continue to support the USD and we expect Fed policy moves later in the year to bolster the USD as well. Preliminary UK Q1 GDP will likely edge higher to 0.3% (QoQ) and should help shift some of the attention back to the fundamentals after the new government announced the first spending cuts to the new budget.

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The AUDUSD fell 1.4% to 0.8206 from 0.8318 last week, when it completed a 6.1% drop after touching 0.8073 on Friday, the least since July 2009 and AUDJPY slid 1.6% to 73.75 and NZDUSD weakened 1.1% to 0.6709 and NZDJPY was at 60.29 for the sixth time in seven days on concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread. The AUDUSD extended last week’s biggest weekly decline since October 2008 as slumping Asian equities spurred investors to dump higher-yielding assets. The currency also fell after Rio Tinto said the proposed mining profit tax acted as a “wet blanket” on its investment plans in the nation. The AUD fell as Rio said it will be shifting resources away from Australia after the government proposed a resources “super profits” tax. Traders cut bets for a fifth week that the AUDUSD will gain.

The EURUSD fell to 1.2518 while EURJPY dropped to 112.65, ending a three-day gain; on concern Greece’s fiscal crisis will spread to other nations and hamper the region’s economic growth. The USD Index gained 0.3% to 85.64 for the first time in four days before US reports will show the housing market rose to 5.65M in April (prev. 5.35M). The EUR weakened after the Bank of Spain said on May 22 it appointed a provisional administrator to run CajaSur, a savings bank crippled by property loan defaults. This will probably revive concerns about the broader stability of the EU banking system. EU finance ministers last week pledged to stiffen sanctions on high-deficit countries and ruled out setting up a mechanism to manage state defaults. Under the pact, nations with deficits above 3% of GDP face fines unless they get the budget back into compliance. Traders pared bets against the EURUSD from a record as widening price swings prompted a reduction of EUR-funded investments in higher-yielding countries.

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