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The late Asian session was one massive exit from risk correlated trades which then pushed USD and JPY significantly higher. Early in the session, risk appetite was solid with US equity markets higher on the back of Bernanke’s testimony. Bernanke stressed that the Fed would probability keep the federal funds rate “exceptionally low for an extended period.” In addition, Bernanke was clearly intent on signaling that the recent hike in the discount rate does not automatically signal an adjustment to federal funds rate. The AUD was well supported in this early part of the session. The AUD was gaining support on three fronts, overall rally in risk, hawkish comment from a well respected RBA watcher and strong domestic economic data (CAPEX data showed Investments were up strongly in Q1 5.5% q/q vs 1.5% exp). But a rash of warnings from Moody’s and S&P, as well as a UK telegraph piece suggesting the prospect of Germany rescuing Greece has declined slightly after recent comments. Although there will be a slew of interesting data today, including the important US durable Goods, the markets will clearly be driven by unfolding events from the EU. We still believe, in this environment, the USD and JPY will be to key beneficiaries of EU sovereign credit concerns.

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